Ezekiel Elliott vs. Antonio Gibson
Strategy for Fantasy Football Success Week 14 and Beyond
Heading into Week 14 of the NFL season, many fantasy managers are fixated on the impending fantasy playoffs. While some have secured their team’s spot, others are already contemplating 2024. For those facing “must-win” scenarios, my counsel is straightforward: prioritize the championship as the only truly must-win game.
Whether you engage in redraft or dynasty, for glory or financial gain, this principle holds true. In most leagues, there’s no accolade for fifth place, and finishing third doesn’t etch your name on the league trophy. Even in leagues where second and third receive prizes, the value of first place typically far surpasses that of the runners-up.
Implementing this strategy is uncomplicated. Every decision you make should aim to maximize your chances of winning the championship. For instance, imagine a situation where you lack strength at RB in Week 14, and both Ezekiel Elliott and Antonio Gibson are available. While it might be argued that, in the hypothetical absence of Brian Robinson, Gibson could see increased touches, making him a more valuable long-term asset, I’m not advocating for this case beyond a thought experiment.
Let’s consider a hypothetical choice: 1) starting Zeke for 11ppg the rest of the season; or 2) starting your current RB for 8pts in Week 14, then switching to Gibson for 14ppg in the fantasy playoffs. Option 1 offers better odds in Week 14, but winning in Week 14 doesn’t yield any tangible reward. Option 2 involves a higher risk of elimination in Week 14, but the timing of elimination should be inconsequential compared to the value of winning in your championship week.
Yet, managers often fall into the trap of prioritizing the immediate week. Despite other factors favoring Zeke over Gibson, a common rationale for prioritizing Zeke on Week 14 waivers was, “If you need an RB this week, then I prefer Zeke.” While a need for an RB due to a choice between Zeke and zero is valid, if you believe Gibson has greater long-term potential, prioritize the long-term upside. Enhancing your chances in the league championship should hold more significance than merely surviving to make the playoffs.
By: Jacob Fabian (@16fabianjacob)
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